This was somewhat unexpected, but it was reported early this morning that unemployment dropped by .1%, down to 9.4%, for the first time in a year. Even the number of lost jobs went down, hanging around 250,000. That’s good news, and some analysts are pointing to it saying that it might be proof that the economy really is starting to turn around.

I hate to look a gift horse in the mouth, but don’t start counting on buying that new BMW just yet. There are a few things we have to consider that are in these numbers.

For instance, the news reports that a part of the reason they believe some of the jobless numbers are low is because some people who’d traditionally be laid off now are already out of work, so that’s been taken care of.

Another thing to consider is that unemployment only goes so long, so many people will start dropping off, whether they’ve found new work or not. Remember, that figure only counts people who qualify for unemployment compensation.

And third, we still have the pending worry about commercial real estate and the potential loss of upwards of 9 million more jobs if some of those deals aren’t reworked by the end of the year. Personally, I doubt we’d really lose that many jobs if deals weren’t worked out across the board, but the potential is there, so it has to be mentioned.

So, in this instance, since I still know a lot of people who are out of work, I’m not ready to start grasping at straws. I’ll take the number for what it is, and we’ll see if it continues into September.

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